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TOPIC: Sunday Million Hand Contest #22

Sunday Million Hand Contest #22 1 year 2 months ago #1510

  • APAcoach88
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"Hey guys, you all know the drill! Best analysis/answer to the HH gets staked in the Sunday Million! Best of luck to everyone.

Following hand took place during the WSOP Main Event $10,000 buy-in.

Blinds 75/150

Stack sizes-

Hero- 47k
Villain- 50k

Folds to the hero on the button who limps in with K5dd (good way of keeping in their worse hands that would fold to our open when we are 300bb+), small blind calls, BB checks.

Flop is :a-spade: :5-spade: :5-club:

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 300 into 450 pot, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn is :4-spade:

SB checks, Hero bets 800 into pot of 1150, villain check raises to 2,000. Hero calls.

River :2-diamond:

Villain thinks 10 seconds, and bets 3,000 into a pot of 5,000. Hero...?

Not only should you say what the hero's best option is, but focus on the perceived range of our villain and the hands that make MOST sense for him to play on each particular street in this manner. Good luck!

APAcoach"
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The following user(s) said Thank You: TheOldNight, mariag777

Sunday Million Hand Contest #22 1 year 2 months ago #1511

  • TheOldNight
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This one is really though.

I think he had Very Strong ace, pre-flop he didn't wanted to scare anyone away from the hand so he just checked, when he saw the flop he got confident in his hand and since hero was raising himself he just played along for the value. He got bit scared on the turn for the potential flush, you raised him and he had to re-raise you since just calling would not give him any more information then he already has, the fact that you didn't re-raised on turn made him think that you are not yet ready to compete with him. Two of diamonds on the river haven't really changed anything, so he though he was still a top dog.

Any 3 would beat him, but there's no way hero played straight draw like that. Flush would beat him too, but the way you played river makes him doubt that, on top of that he most likely has King of spades with his Ace so he knows you don't have a nuts flush and since he re-raised you on turn, even if hero has flush he's in doubt since villain played like he has flush too.

I would put him on Ace/King*spades

I would call him on river.
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #22 1 year 2 months ago #1512

i think you could write a book with the range of hands our villain can have from the sb the way the hand played out my opinion is that villain called with a hand like :3-spade: :2-spade: any higher ax villain will isolate the limper, he called the flop with a gut shot and flush draw and got there on the turn so re raised, once hero called it was obvious hero had a 5 in there hand as hero would not call a re raise on the turn with one pair only villain was not afraid of a full house in most cases hero would make a pfr with any pocket pairs 44s 22s its a very dificult spot for hero to call as he is beat by a full house a flush and a straight i think correct play would be for a very difficult fold
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #22 1 year 1 month ago #1513

  • gekko
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EDIT: If somebody knows how to get images to be shown straight on this post please inform me!
EDIT2: www.filedropper.com/k5dd same text with pics in .rtf file


I gave SB following range preflop. He might raise-bluff some% of he's weaker suited hands but without any reads we'd be just guessing which part of them . Also combowise they shouldn't make that big of difference in the whole picture.

http://imgur.com/a/CZOdL

We cbet on the 66% against two amigos. SB needs to play littlebit tighter since there's one player to act after him. So his continuing with following range. To keep things simpe I'm not giving him check-raise range as it doesnt seem to happen significally often at these spots.

http://imgur.com/a/9N10y

Se hes ranges contains now total of 100 combos.

Toppair 36 kombos
Trips or better 18 kombos
Pocket 66 (questionable) 6 kombos
Flushdraw 40 kombos

Turn is quite an interesting card. We continue 70ish% which is very standard play. Things get wacky when he decides to check-raise this card that hits his current range hard. One important thing is that he cannot have any KsXx or QsXx hands all of them folded either pf or flop. I dont see anybody doing this with bare Ax and some part of his 5x's are also just calling here. So even it sound weird he has very very few or none bluffs here, but obviously we cannot fold on the turn since he could be raising with weaker 5x >0% of time.

So on the river he has 54 combos left and as we can see, there are not too many weaker hands than ours.

65 4 combos
75,85,95,T5,J5,Q5 1 combo each 6 combos
K5 (split) 2 kombos

http://imgur.com/a/9N10y

We need to win 37,5% of the time against his river bet but we have only 22% better hands even before he bets and betting river narrows out at least some of he's weaker 5x's. So the question here on the river should be FOLD or BLUFFRAISE.

Again to keep things simple lets assume he bets straight and better (35 kombos). So lets say we raise to 8500, what kind of hands he should fold to allow us turn profit? GTO-wise he need to call approximately 66% of his range or his overfoldin/overcalling. So lets just take 66% of his stongest hands off to get what should he be folding to make it a good bluff for us.

http://imgur.com/a/kp86J

So if he folds these hands to our raise it's a profitable bluff. Here is also important would he be betting he's weaker 5x which would allow us to build calling range.

In practise its of course littlebit different. I've never played WSOP Main Event, but I believe generally people are avoiding playing big pots with marginal hands. But if opponent isn't scared money or anything like that we need to at least concider turning this kind of hands into bluffs. This spot is gross since its difficult to give SB proper complete range preflop. Specially live ppl play more than they should, even if its WSOP MAin Event. On this hands reads would make our life so much easier, but as we all know this is a game of incomplete information and one who fills it up best ens up showing most profit.

Cliffnotes:

-Opponent is very valueheavy
-Is he betting with worse 5x on the river?
-Is he capable folding Tsxs against river raise?
Last Edit: 1 year 1 month ago by gekko.
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #22 1 year 1 month ago #1514

Pre: SB has almost all hands preflop when +300bb deep and have to put only half blind more. He might fold pre the worst offsuit hands like 32o,72o etc. And he would certainly isolate raise preflop good pairs, AK-AT, maybe also hands like A9s, KQs etc.

Flop: When check-calling flop his range is flushdraws, Ax (low kickers), 5x (very very unlikely, because u have one 5 and two fives on flop also), maybe 22,33,44,66. But there is sick amount fd combos than other hands. He could limp sb even with 3s2s and Js3s.

Turn: Check-raising turn with Ax makes no sense. A5 only. And again 5x is so super unlikely. And he might just call on the turn with worst 5x anyway, because of flush. He could hit Obama's on turn (he might call once 44 on the flop). But all flush combos makes sense.

River: Easy fold. He could have ALL flushes!! + Some pocket 4's + very very rarely some 5x.
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #22 1 year 1 month ago #1515

  • eki87
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villain hand looks lot like flush or A5. Villain call on the flop, so i think he had Ax or flush draw. When he raise on the turn it looks very strong like flush,A5 or 45. River when he bets 3000 it looks like value bet and we can only beat a bluff, so we have to fold.
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