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TOPIC: Hand Contest #21

Hand Contest #21 1 year 3 months ago #1496

  • APAcoach88
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Hey guys,

Ya'll know the drill, best answer/analysis to the following HH gets entry into a weekly major! Best of luck all!

The following hand was played by me in the first level of the World Series of Poker Main Event $10,000 buy-in.

Blinds 75/150, starting stacks 50k

Button opens to 400, SB (middle aged older white man) flats, we call in the BB with :7-spade: :7-club:

Flop is :7-diamond: :8-diamond: :j-spade: , SB checks, I check, button checks.

Turn is :k-club: , SB checks a 2nd time, I bet 600, button folds, SB calls.

River is :a-heart: , SB checks a 3rd time, I bet 1425, SB thinks 30 seconds and check raises to 5,025.

Do we fold or call (and why)? Hint, focus on his potential bluff ranges and value ranges!

Best of luck,

APAcoach
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The following user(s) said Thank You: TheOldNight

Hand Contest #21 1 year 3 months ago #1499

  • TheOldNight
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Hey,

I would CALL him without much thinking, I personally think he has two pair tops. Worst case scenario you lose ~10% of your stack size, not a killer. Trips is just a hand no one ever expects, dude is just playing his a/k a/j. It's really though to make any sense of his play in the first hand of the tournament.
Last Edit: 1 year 3 months ago by TheOldNight. Reason: added "Hey,"
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Hand Contest #21 1 year 2 months ago #1502

  • fakiiri
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EDIT. I misunderstood stack sizes in first view.

I believe in stereotype that middle aged american men plays more pairs and AK's than suited connectors with conservative way. Flat calling everything. So we can carefully forget 9T and TQ. They might flat call even big pockets so we must be aware of that.

There is good spot represent AAKK, AAA, KKK and straights. But maybe real hand is more likely AAKK, AAA and KKK than a straight.

Also there is possibility of JJJ and 888. Aswell as possibility of QQ,TT and 99 turned to bluff.

Effective stacks are so huge and pot size is just a decent after river raise. I would consider folding against higher set. Only AAKK would be a hand you beat, and QQ,TT,99 bluff representing a straight. But maybe pot size and bet is not effective enough to get you scared of straight in this situation. Thats why i think villain have higher set, AAKK or a bluff.

Maybe this is a coinflip situation, call or fold. I would say there is 88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA,AK against your 77.
Last Edit: 1 year 2 months ago by fakiiri.
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Hand Contest #21 1 year 2 months ago #1503

When SB flats preflop, we can safelly drop out very top and bottom of his range. Because he would 3bet hands like AA,KK etc. And fold hands like 73o,95o etc. So he has something of middle category.

SB checks twice (flop and turn). Flop check is pretty automatic check to aggressor. But when he check twice, also on the turn. We can safelly drop out many hands again.

board: :7-diamond: :8-diamond: :j-spade: :k-club:

SB would most likely BET or check raise turn with hands like KJ,KQ,T9s,K8s,888,some flushdraw combos etc. (very good hands)

When SB check-calls turn, his range looks something like AJ,AT,(A8),QT,some flushdraw combos etc. (one pair, draw type hand, not very good)


So, on the river his hand should not be very good. And he check-raises suddenly. Our alarm bells should go DING DING DING.

Is he even check-raising 2pair hands here? Some players just call. Only 2pairs he could have is only like AJ,A8,A7 (because of his flop and turn play)

He shouldn't have any sets beccause how he played that hand.

QT is only hand what got there. T9 don't play this way.

So SB has hand like AJ,A8,QT or BLUFF. Almost nobody check-raise river suddenly with bluff.

AJ may 3bet preflop or bet turn (almost same with A8). So it leaves basically only QT-hand. So pretty easy fold.
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Hand Contest #21 1 year 2 months ago #1504

  • eki87
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I think he do the raise only for value and he never bluffing so i would fold. AA or KK he probably 3bet preflop and on the turn if he had T9, set or two pairs he would bet. When he check raises the river i think he could only have AJ,AK,QT or bluff. How he played this hand it looks so much like a QT because check flop,turn and check raise river.
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Hand Contest #21 1 year 2 months ago #1507

  • APAcoach88
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Great answers guys! The winner this week is "Checkraise2xpot..." (the long name!) It wasn't a fun fold to make ten minutes into the Main Event, but the thought process is sound, there were no bluffs in his range, thus leaving him with ONLY value hands, and none of the two pairs would c/raise for value, so he is let with sets and straights for his value range, and as the winner said, 9T and 888 make no sense (as he checks three times) and AA/KK/JJ are unlikely since he flatted pre, thus leaving us with exactly the QT and nothing else! The thought process is solid along the way, I ended up folding and was shown the QTo luckily. Everyone, re-read his answer, and the honorable mention goes to ekki87, who had a similar answer, just with a little less detail and explanation.

Good job this week, and gl in the Sunday Million! Checkraise2xpot...please post your Stars info so we can get you funded and ready to play this coming Sunday, keep us posted on the thread for a sweat, and good luck!

APAcoach
Last Edit: 1 year 2 months ago by APAcoach88.
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