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TOPIC: Sunday Million Hand Contest #15

Sunday Million Hand Contest #15 2 years 5 months ago #1361

  • APAcoach88
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Hey guys, you all know the drill, best answer gets entry in the Sunday Million tournament! Good luck

Hand takes place in a WPT main event, day 1

Blinds 150/300 with 25 ante

Villain (covers)
Villain 2(covers)
Hero (25k)

Villain opens hijack to 800, Hero flats button with :a-heart: :j-club: , Villain 2 flats SB.

(pot~ 3k) Flop :a-diamond: :q-club: :2-spade:

Both villains check to hero, who also checks behind (villain 2 is spazzy and unpredictable and Villain 1 is excellent young NLH player)

Turn is :9-club: , putting 2 clubs on board.

Villain 2 checks, Villain 1 bets 1500, Hero calls, Villain 2 folds.

River is :5-club: , making 3 clubs on the board. (pot~6,000)

Villain tanks 2 minutes, bets 5,000. Hero????????


Best of luck all, focus on what villain's potential value and bluff ranges might consist of, as well as sizing and each particular street's actions from villain. (*Also, what about our hand might help us deduce more about the villain's potential holdings?)
Last Edit: 2 years 5 months ago by APAcoach88.
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The following user(s) said Thank You: senja12

Sunday Million Hand Contest #15 2 years 5 months ago #1362

In my way of thinking doin a raise in hijack is a very strong move. He is a very good holdem player which in my mind only experience would have him holding AQ AJ something in that range. The check on the flop is interesting because he wants a bet I believe so he he can raise. Which in turn causes him to bet the turn as two clubs fall now and there r outs that can catch up. The third club comes an it's a 5 so which also brings the wheel into play. He has to think about it but believes his two pair or big ace is good so he goes with his insiNct and bets. I fold my AJ on this bet on the river cause there is to much that beats me
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #15 2 years 5 months ago #1364

  • supermagicpro
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I would fold. He could have a flush. or might be bluffing. i wouldnt risk my stack for it
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #15 2 years 5 months ago #1365

Hi All,

My first post so go easy on me :)

Bottom line - a Fold.

I think Villain's range for opening from the hijack at that spot would include any suited A, probably as low as A9+, any suited Broadway and probably any pocket pair. Given the ~2.5 BB bet i would guess not a low pair though.

The check on the flop is to see what's up - given that he had 2 callers with no raise so he wants to see if anyone is coming up aggressively, especially given Villain 2 spazzyness.

On the turn, either getting his 2nd pair or flush draw (or less) he puts up the delayed C-bet for about 1/2 pot.

On the river, given that we just called there are two options here -

if he got there with the flush or if he has 2 pair (A9?) it is safe for him to assume that he has the best hand and bet for value.

if he didn't get there, but assuming he still has an A - then there is a very good change he has the A of clubs (as we don't...) so then he would feel more comfortable about bluffing with the river being a flush card.

i think he can also assume that we wouldn't risk our stack here with anything less than 2 pair hence would probably fold even a better A than his.

As i said in the beginning, seems that anything decent that he might have would have us beat hence the fold.

(i'm guessing his actual hand is :a-club: :9-diamond: )

Bye
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #15 2 years 5 months ago #1366

  • semi_god
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Hi all
Hero is siting with 80bb more or less, a pretty comfortable stack.
Villian1 is opening from hijack, he might open these hands:
A2s+, A2o-A5o, A8o+
K9s+, TKo+
Q9s, QTo+
All pocket pairs
45s+
Hands like suited gapoers
Hero is flat calling with AJo and is in position

On the flop I think villian1 is either slowplaying a monster hand, like AA, QQ 22 or 2 pairs, because the board is very dryand villian2 is spazzy and could try to make a move on the turn. I would expect him to bet AK AJ and AT almost all the times, or he has absolutely nothing. I think it is ok that hero checks back because we don't want to get reraised, and we don't want to make such a big pot with our hand, and it has a lot of showdown value.
On the turn, villian1 fires a half pot bet, hero calls and villian2 folds. Villian1 might bet the monsters he slowplayed, he could be semi bluffing with a flush draw, he could have hit a set or 2 pairs on the turn, but it won't occur oftenly. He could be bluffing the rest of the hands that don't hit the board because Hero didn't show strength on the flop.
The river completes a flush and villian1 bets 5000 into a 6000 pot. At this point I think he wants to represent a flush, but unfortunately for him hero has a J of clubs blocker that takes out lots of flushes from his range. The only flushes he could have are:
A8cc, A7cc, A6cc A5cc A3cc A2cc
KTcc
T8cc
78cc 67cc 56cc
As you see, there aren't many flushes on his range due to the J of clubs blocker
He might have a set or 2 pairs he might have slowplayed on the flop or hit the turn, but there are lots of bluffs in his range and doesn't know hero has a J of clubs blocker. Hero has to put 5000 into a 160000 pot so we need roughly 30% equity and against villian1 range I think we do have that equity because there are considerable number of bluffs in his range, so I would make the call
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Sunday Million Hand Contest #15 2 years 4 months ago #1367

  • DrakeM
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Later in the game Hijack is more often used to steal blinds but not this early in the game and not with that raise size (~2,6*BB)

Villain 1 is described as excellent player. I think if he had AA, KK or AK he would raise about 3,5-4xBB preflop, also the CHECK after the flop speaks against AA or AK because the flop is dry and AA and AK would be a pretty strong hand, so I would expect a value bet with AA or a continuation bet with AK/KK, so i dont think he has any of those 3 hands

What else could he have? Villain 1 is opening from Hijack, this early in the game I would expect it with hands like: ATo+, A2s+, K9s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, 88-QQ

I dont think he has an Ace because I would expect a bet on the flop, but if he has an Ace, we would most likely beat his hand because he has NO AA/AK as stated above and no AQ because with AQ I would expect a value bet. But as written in the scenario, Villain 1 is an excellent player and he might just try to lure us into a bet to reraise us.

Im not talking about Villain 2 on purpose: He is spazzy and unpredictable, he could have anything and for this analysis it doesnt really matter as hes folding on turn anyway

If Villain 1 is going for the flush draw with clubs he got those possible combinations of clubs on his hand: A,K,T,8,7,6,4,3,2 --> As stated above I would have expected an opening from Hijack with A2s+ or K9s+ and since I dont think he has an Ace, only KT of clubs would be possible here. But again, Villain 1 is an excellent player and if he has A2s+ of clubs and didnt bet on flop to lure us, he could have any combination of clubs.

But even if he has A2s+ of clubs: On the turn, we would beat any of those cards with our AJo except AK and A2. If he goes for the flush, a half-pot bet on the turn with one club that still has to come sounds a bit fishy to me.

--> I dont think Villain 1 got an Ace or a flush draw. I rather think Villain 1 got 99 and made the set. This would explain every move and of course would be a fold.
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