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TOPIC: Sunday Million Contest #14

Sunday Million Contest #14 2 years 6 months ago #1325

  • APAcoach88
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Hey gang,

You all know the drill, best answer gets entry in the Sunday Million!

This hand takes place with 2 tables left in a $500e online major event.

Blinds 20k/40k

Hero: 3.2mil
Villain: 3.4mil

Hero opens to 80k with :a-heart: :q-heart: UTG+1. Folds around to villain in BB who 3 bets to 222,000. Hero calls.

(Pot~500k) Flop- :a-club: :k-heart: :q-spade:

Villain checks, hero checks.

Turn- :a-spade:

Villain bets 180k, hero calls.

(Pot~860k) River- :3-club:

Villain moves all-in for 2.8million. Hero…?

This one has more to it than it seems at first glance. Good luck all
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Sunday Million Contest #14 2 years 6 months ago #1326

It says the pot is 860k by the river. Is there 40k of dead money in the pot?
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Sunday Million Contest #14 2 years 6 months ago #1327

Against a worst case scenario 3betting range of just AA,KK and AK the river call is worth about 430,000 chips to Hero.

Given stack sizes of >80bb I would err on the side of caution. We beat all combos of KK and nothing else, assuming the preflop range above (AA is impossible) then Hero is good here 50% of the time.

Barring some useful information (Villain is an idiot and would have a wider preflop 3betting range from the blinds (Not likely)) then I would fold.

If, however the villain does have a bunch of AQ,AJ and AT in his 3betting range, along with some other air like KQs QJs and JTs and he would value bet trips or better on the turn and straight or better on the river then I am much more inclined to call, being right about 66.7% of the time.

None of these scenarios are as fantastic to hero as the situation would first suggest. Villain has to be fairly wide OOP for us to only have 66.7% equity on a river call, with what appears to be such a nutted hand.

Our main saving grace is the fact that there are so many blockers to AK that KK becomes a much more sizeable part of the range (And against AA,AK and KK - the only thing we beat).

Depending on skill edge and stack sizes, I am tempted to lean towards folding this 60bb is probably a very nice stack at this stage of the tournament.
If the tournament is very top heavy and there are lots of tough players in the field(likely) and even villain is as tight as AA,KK,AK then I would call for my 50% of a very nice pot (approx. +11bb ev) because it is going to help you gain an advantage over stronger opponents. Any decision in a tough tournament at this stage that is +11bb is probably not the worst thing to do.

This is my first time attempting this so if I am being totally stupid then i'm sorry :)
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Sunday Million Contest #14 2 years 6 months ago #1328

think his 3 bet would be ak kk QQ against utg open, maybe JJ 1010 most range would flat

why check flop? very strong or very. weak

why bet turn small, try induce rasie from hero

since hero show interest, he shove for vaule, making it look like a bluff too, so hero should fold. dont think villain is able to bluff in this kinda of situation, for tournament life
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Sunday Million Contest #14 2 years 6 months ago #1329

  • floraj
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Let us go through the whole action.
Considering the situation, the number of players left and the amount of money involved after each elimination, Players tend to play and think(seeing the 4 comments before me) a little too tight.

We(Hero) Open the raise, Big Blind 3 bets and we decided to call in Position. Very standard till now.(we must be aware of VILLANS table image here, how tight has he been playing, is he capable of 3 betting with marginal hands, what does he think about our image on the table.)

After the Flop, Most of time Preflop Aggressor will make the Continuation Bet. But the Villian Chose to Check to us. This "Check" can mean Three things. 1) He probably took the stab Preflop and decided to SlowDown on the Flop. 2) He took the Stab Preflop and got lucky to Flop the Nuts (i.e.TJ) 3) He has a legitimate hand like AA, KKs and AK.
Now, Once WE check it back to see the turn, Villian is pretty much sure that WE most of the time wont have a Strong Hand here.

The TURN, is a Magical Card for us, I say Magical because it makes our decision easier by Eliminating the Possibilities of AAs and we are Also dominating KKs and QQs here. MOREOVER, it will make it hard for Villian to belive that we have an ACE with us. COMING BACK TO THE ACTION, Villian now Puts a Small Bet of 180k for the pot of 500k (Small Bets like these can be interpretted as a TESTER BET or INDUCER BET.) In this Situation it looks more like a Tester Bet. LETS THINK FROM VILLIAN POINT OF YOU, if HERO reraise this BEt, Villan Folds, if Hero Just Calls..A big Bet on the River will get the job Done. COMING BACK TO THE ACTION, WE decided to just Flat with the SECOND NUTS and see the RIVER. MeanWhile, Villan is very much sure that Hero doesnt have a hand as strong as a full house. he probably might just keep us on KJ type hands.

THE RIVER,is a BRICK. And here Villan Plays the Weirdest Move of ALL IN and Now suddenly the second nuts has a decision to make. Lets MAKE A DECISION!
What are the Chances of him having AK? NOW, the table image plays the Important Role. How does Villian Plays After the Flop, does he really slows down on the flop, how often does he make the Continuation Bet. The Biggest Question to answer will be, IS HE CAPABLE OF CHECKING THE FLOP and GIVING US A FREE CARD for a 500K POT with AK?and putting a SMALL BET on the TURN with NUTS. If he did that with AK that would just be a very weird line.

I would Go with The answer NO. The way he Played it, it looks more like that Villain is Playing against us rather than the Cards. and WE played it deceptively, which made the Villain make such a Move, Hoping that WE will Fold a weak Ace like AT, AJ or KJ.

I feel the Hero Played this Hand Perfectly and more importantly DECEPTIVELY. I would be Calling his ALL IN move Almost ALL THE TIME. THERE IS NO MATHS INVOLVED WHEN THE HAND IS PLAYED THIS WEIRDLY,it more about what you keep your opponent on and KNOWING what your opponent Must be keeping you on (Not considering what STAGE the tournament is)

Thank YOU!! :)
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Sunday Million Contest #14 2 years 6 months ago #1330

  • chester73
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Not sure of dynamics of the table but I'm assuming that the pay-outs are top 5 heavy. To begin with, Hero is capable to 4-betting in this spot to 450k with :a-heart: :q-heart: . Our hand is super strong pre not to 4bet. I would like to be in control of this pot and our hand is great enough to call a 5 bet shove pre. There are four hands we are not beating Aas, Kks, Qqs, Ak, ..... since we have an Ace and A Queen, I will eliminate Qqs, Aas in equation (Villain). With that in mind, our hand has a 30% equity vs Ak / Kks..... against Aas , Kks Ak-Aj , our hand has a higher equity of 46%.

I would bet 550k on flop and if he folds , good for us , if he shoves , I would snap call.

Not sure how aggressive the player is , but in this spot , hyper aggression normal wins.

As played , even though we are 80bbs deep, a full boat with be very hard to fold. So I would call on the river shove by the Villain.

If he so happens, he has Aas, or Ak , then Gg.... what a cooler situation.

As played, since we are the passive player in this situation, we have a decision to make if we are playing to win or we are playing to fold?

"Our soldiers went to battle and went guns blazing and gave it all it got, All we have to do now is capture the Flag !!"

Good luck to all !

By the way..... I expect Villain to show Kks in this spot.
Last Edit: 2 years 6 months ago by chester73. Reason: Battle / Kks
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